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IAMO Team Receives Recognition in International Data Science Competition

28 January 2025

A team of IAMO researchers,  Atabek Umirbekov and Chanxing Dong, have achieved recognition in a data science competition on Water Supply Forecasting, organized by DrivenData in collaboration with the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. Competing against international teams, the team secured 5th place in the Explainability and Communication Bonus Track, a nomination that emphasizes clarity and impact in the presentation of forecast results.

The competition was designed to improve seasonal water supply forecasting across the western United States, which is an important aid in planning water resource management, crop production, hydropower generation, and drought mitigation. Participants developed innovative, data-driven approaches for seasonal forecasting, focusing on both technical accuracy and the effective communication of insights to stakeholders.

The team’s submitted solution for water supply forecasting in the Western US employs a Partial Least Squares regression model, features rigorous selection of representative predictor variables, extensive cross-validation, and estimation of forecast exceedance probabilities. Their approach to communicating forecasts involves presenting predictions alongside the current state of key hydrological variables within a historical context. The approach also emphasizes which current factors the forecast relies on at the time it is issued.

Interest in participating in the competition stemmed from the team’s and IAMO’s dedication to tackling climate and water challenges for agriculture. This accomplishment highlights IAMO’s commitment to advancing cutting-edge research and practical solutions to improve resilience in agricultural systems.

For more information about the competition and its outcomes, visit the https://drivendata.co/blog/water-supply-forecast-and-final-winners.